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Monitoring the fitness of antiviral resistant influenza strains during an epidemic

leungkat - Posted on 24 March 2016

Project Description: 

Antivirals, such as oseltamivir,are an important pharmaceutical intervention for mitigating influenza epidemics and pandemics. In 2007, an oseltamivir-resistant seasonal A(H1N1) strain emerged and spread to global fixation within one year. This shows that antiviral-resistant (AVR) strains can be intrinsically more transmissible than its contemporaneous antiviral-sensitive (AVS) counterpart. Real-time surveillance of AVR fitness is therefore essential, especially in the context of influenza pandemics because many countries have stockpiled large amounts of antivirals for pandemic mitigation.

We developed a novel and simple method for estimating the fitness of AVR strains (defined as their transmissibility relative to co-circulating AVS strains) using data from that are routinely compiled by contemporary influenza AVR surveillance systems. This method requires only information on generation time but not other specific details regarding transmission dynamics. We want to test this method with simulations of a lot of disease transmission scenarios to show that this method yields unbiased and robust fitness estimates.

Researcher name: 
Kathy Leung
Researcher position: 
Graduate student
Researcher department: 
WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control - School of Public Health - Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine - The University of Hong Kong - Hong Kong Special Administrative Region - China
Researcher email: 
kathyleung@connect.hku.hk
Researcher name: 
Joseph Wu
Researcher position: 
Associate Professor
Researcher department: 
WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control - School of Public Health - Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine - The University of Hong Kong - Hong Kong Special Administrative Region - China
Researcher email: 
joewu@hku.hk
Research Project Details
Project Duration: 
03/2016 to 09/2017
Project Significance: 
Real-time surveillance of AVR fitness is essential, especially in the context of influenza pandemics because many countries have stockpiled large amounts of antivirals for pandemic mitigation
Results Achieved: 
We developed a novel and simple method for estimating the fitness of AVR strains (defined as their transmissibility relative to co-circulating AVS strains) using data from that are routinely compiled by contemporary influenza AVR surveillance systems. This method requires only information on generation time but not other specific details regarding transmission dynamics. Our paper "Monitoring the fitness of antiviral-resistant influenza strains during an epidemic: A mathematical modeling study" has been accepted for publication on The Lancet Infectious Disease.