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Real-time estimation of the severity of influenza viruses

wongytj - Posted on 22 June 2016

Project Description: 

The study will permit timely, accurate and precise estimates of the seriousness of influenza virus infections. Combing these estimates with transmissibility will improve our understanding of the impact that influenza viruses will have in a population, and would be of importance in decision-making during early stage of influenza epidemics.

Research Project Details
Project Duration: 
06/2016-08/2018
Project Significance: 
This project is support by the HMFR grant (grant no:14131432). The specific objectives of grant are as follows: 1. To determine optimal methods for real-time estimation of the symptomatic case fatality risk of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 in 2009 and 2011, and influenza A(H3N2) in 2010, in Hong Kong. 2. To determine optimal methods for real-time estimate of the hospitalization fatality risk of influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 in 2009 and influenza A(H7N9) in 2013 using data from Hong Kong and China, respectively. 3. To estimate minimum number of cases required for reliable real-time estimation of the symptomatic case fatality risk and hospitalization fatality risk. 4. To validate the performance of real-time estimation of case fatality risk and hospitalization fatality risk on data from influenza virus epidemics in Hong Kong in 2012-14.
Remarks: 
The huge memory of computing resources available from HPC is helpful for parameter estimation using RStan, since estimating dominant eigenvalue based on power iteration requires huge RAM.